Through a combination of market knowledge, commercial experience, statistical research and professional
judgement, distributors gauge the audience for each film.
Who is the film for? Who can be convinced to buy a cinema ticket to see it and why should they do so?
What sort of audiences have similar films attracted recently?
Only when distributors have considered what a film may earn (with low/medium/high estimates) can they prepare a budget to release it, bearing in mind all the related costs. As with every business plan, the goal is to recoup all the costs and turn a profit. But launching films is expensive and risky - audiences have so many other leisure choices in and out of the home. In reality, most films do not make a profit from their theatrical runs alone.
When planning a new release, relying solely on conventional wisdom is never an option. Early information can be gleaned from discussions with the filmmakers and by reading the script, but every project is a oneoff. Each release is individually planned given current circumstances. Distribution plans are often confirmed only when the finished product is available to view.
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Sara Frain:
On positioning, genre and audiences
Play clip > |
A detailed understanding of the target audience - age group and gender, of course, but also lifestyles, social networks, media consumption patterns - always informs the subsequent decisions on how and where a particular film is promoted in order to reach them.
Naturally the audience can vary considerably film by film, for example from families with young children to teenage males and/or females to older adults, or sometimes a combination. Particular films may appeal to people with particular interests - say in history, cars, animals, certain countries, whatever. Generally, UK cinemagoers are upmarket, especially for more specialised fare, while cinemagoing is a shared experience with an average of three people per party.
It's important never to lose sight of a film's core target audience. But the distributor's challenge is always to attract as wide a spread as possible - identifying niche interest groups as well as the broad mainstream, and ideally helping a film to 'break out' and 'cross over'.
The most frequent cinemagoers tend to be - teenagers, students, young adults. They are the most voracious media consumers of any age group, and although television remains popular, the internet plays a central role in their lives.
More than half of 15-24 year-olds in the UK visit the cinema at least once a month - it's a favourite out-of-home leisure activity for young people - but overall, just a quarter of the population goes that often. The cinema audience is broadening as the population ages and diversifies, and adults aged 35 and above account for a growing proportion of ticket sales.
The average number of visits per person works out at 2.7 a year, up from barely one a year at the low point of the mid-1980s. Yet this is still a lower frequency than in other countries such as Ireland, Australia, the US and Canada, and the
industry is working to encourage more visits.
If you look at how a film performs, the greater its box-office takings, the more likely it is to be
attracting infrequent cinemagoers and repeat visits. It's a function of the market that the more a film is aimed at an audience beyond 15-24 year-olds or family groups - perhaps an older, more discerning segment who may not frequent cinemas as much - the more outstanding it has to be to sustain a theatrical life.
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Hugo Grumbar:
On why being very clear who your target audience is really matters
Play clip > |
Audience tastes are notoriously unpredictable and traditional preferences may not count for a lot in practice. Nobody can be absolutely certain what makes a hit, or when and where it might happen. Notwithstanding the best made plans, cinemagoers discover particular films they like or dislike when they open.
Lord Richard Attenborough CBE.
Market research may be conducted to probe audience reactions at pre-release test screenings or to evaluate alternative marketing campaigns- fundamental considerations for every release. Test screenings, after which the viewers complete questionnaires, can help the distributor to be more confident of the expected audience or box-office prospects.
A few films every year become 'sleeper' hits, playing for longer and generating greater returns than expected. But just because one romantic comedy or action adventure plays successfully to a particular audience is no guarantee that the next such release will do likewise: it depends on the individual film and market conditions. It's well nigh impossible to
entice people to a film in which they have no interest.
Inevitably, as it's such an unpredictable, product-driven business, each distributor's earnings, market share and profitability fluctuate year by year, reflecting the success or otherwise of individual titles.
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Fame
You ain't seen the best of me yet: The young director of the 2009 version of Fame, updated almost 30 years after the original musical film, wrote a blog on myspace during production and post-production in Los Angeles. Kevin Tancharoen's cast featured a group of up-and-coming talents alongside 'teachers' including Kelsey Grammer and Debbie Allen. |
As well as the target audience and commercial risk, what factors do distributors take into account when developing their release plans?
- Competition is always a primary consideration. Which films are other distributors likely to release at the same
time and during the following weeks - especially those targeted at a similar audience? Is there space in the market for
something different - some 'counterprogramming'? Are the most appropriate screens for this film available and likely to
be offered? Projected release dates often change as competing distributors jockey for position week by week.
- Is it an event film, a prospective mass market blockbuster, or a specialised film for a more discrete audience?
- Is there any star power among the cast? What were the lead star's last couple of films and how were they received commercially and critically? Is the film made by a 'name' director or producer?.
- Are any cast members available for UK/international publicity or to attend a premiere?
- Is it a film for a holiday period? If so, which season? School holiday dates may vary around the UK, and with those in other countries. What kinds of films have been released successfully in particular slots in previous years?
- Is it a film with hopes for award nominations? The Academy Award®, Golden Globe and Orange British Academy Film Award contenders often open in the UK between December - February, when the annual awards publicity reaches its peak, although this
can cause a bottleneck in an already congested release schedule.
- Will the film lead the media reviews of that week's new releases?
- Is there already a buzz about the film, due to its stars or makers, a book on which it is based, or perhaps some
controversial subject matter? What is posted about the film online?
- If it is a sequel or franchise entry, what elements distinguish it or give contemporary resonance over and above
its predecessor(s)?
- Has the film already opened in the US or elsewhere? Substantial success in the US, reported via websites and other
media, can contribute to positive word of mouth in the UK - although this can work both ways, as a disappointing performance overseas may adversely affect perceptions here.
- What certificate will the film have? The certificate awarded by the British Board of Film Classification (BBFC) is important as it can affect the potential audience. Distributors submit a copy of each film to the BBFC for classification as soon as possible, paying a fee according to the film's length. You'll find consumer advice about the content included in a panel on the film's advertising.
Different releases are managed in different ways. For example, a saturation release 'at cinemas everywhere' may open simultaneously on 1,000 screens UK-wide, playing at two or more screens per multiplex. This strategy, usually deployed for 'tentpole' titles such as large-scale sequels or star-led holiday releases, helps to accommodate mass audiences eager to see a
film at the earliest opportunity. Sometimes, one print can service more than one screen if it is 'interlocked' between adjacent projectors.
By contrast, the specialised release of, say, a foreign language film or revived classic may comprise 25 prints or fewer. Initially, the film may play in selected screens in London and some university towns, where local audiences are known to favour such titles, before touring more widely over the following weeks. Very occasionally, a film might be 'platformed' in just one location before rolling out. London, with an increasingly diverse population of 7.5m people, accounts for about a quarter of UK cinema admissions.
Today, many films are released digitally as well as on 35mm celluloid prints. A digital release takes the form of specially encoded media disks which are despatched to cinemas, where the content is ingested into a powerful server and played out through a state-of-the-art digital projector. The disks are significantly less expensive to duplicate than 35mm copies (around 10% of the cost), while digital encryption can also render the disks highly secure.
Digital cinema presents new releasing and programming opportunities for film distributors and cinema operators respectively.
The digital images appear on screen in pristine quality and do not deteriorate over time - there is no wear and tear, as is inevitable with 35mm projection machinery. Digital remastering - though time-consuming and costly - enables classic films to return to the big screen looking as good as new.
Digital projectors may also be adapted easily to present films in digital 3D. As you probably know, more and more
films - live-action and animation (two examples right) - are being released in 3D, which enhances certain stories dramatically while giving audiences a comfortable, stable, laser-sharp viewing experience.
As early as possible, the distributor views the finished film and confirms the release plan. In the UK, where distributors pay all the release costs including marketing and the duplication of prints (35mm or digital), the distributor draws up and works to a comprehensive budget. This covers both the launch and sustaining of the film post-release. The investment and projected returns can be reassessed subject to commercial performance week by week.
A distribution budget may be itemised as shown below. It details all the print costs associated with the physical release and all the advertising/publicity ('ad pub') costs associated with media and marketing activities:
Total UK distribution expenditure can vary from some thousands of pounds up to £4m-£5m per film.
In co-ordinating all these elements, often for several different releases at a time, distributors exercise formidable project management skills. It's possible for a fine film to get lost in the mêlée without careful handling and distinct promotion. But even inspired marketing can't save a film for which the public has no appetite.
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Hugo Grumbar:
On what makes up a "P&A" budget and how it's allocated:
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